The October 2008 economic meltdown—whose aftershocks are still being felt throughout the global economy—is considered by many economists to be the worst fiscal calamity since the Great Depression. Although it's not realistic to assume that future economic adversity can be averted, statisticians at Carnegie Mellon are studying the methods that economists use for predicting potential economic crisis. Department of Statistics head Mark Schervish, assistant professor Cosma Shalizi, and Daniel McDonald (HS'08, '11) recently received a three-year, $145,000 grant from the Institute for New Economic Thinking to apply proven techniques in statistical learning theory to macroeconomic forecasting models.
—Elizabeth May
